SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AS
WELL AS THE SRN ROCKIES. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS SE CO AND SW KS
WHERE WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEG F AND RH VALUES AOB 12 PERCENT. LATEST
FUEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRIMARILY MOIST FUELS AND WILL
DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ANY POTENTIAL UPGRADES. ANY CHANGE IN
FUEL DRYNESS WOULD LIKELY NECESSITATE A CRITICAL RISK AREA.

..MOSIER.. 06/10/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0238 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD AND CREST AN UPPER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO ERN NM...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES N
INTO NEB AND IA.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...SRN ROCKIES...
TWO SEPARATE WIND REGIMES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP E AND W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM SWRN NEB INTO FAR WRN
KS/SERN CO AND NERN NM DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE/LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A 30-45 KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET FROM NRN OK
INTO ERN NEB. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-35 MPH. IN ADDITION...HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...WITH RH
VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT IN WRN KS TO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS SERN NEB...MUCH OF KS...WRN OK...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS ACROSS ERN/SRN
CO AND NRN NM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE PROBABLE OVER CO...WITH WEAKER SPEEDS FROM
15-20 MPH LIKELY OVER NRN NM. IN ADDITION...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THOUGH METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT...FUEL GUIDANCE AND RECENT RAINFALL INDICATE
THAT THE DRIEST VEGETATION WILL NOT BE FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED WITH THE
LOWEST RH VALUES/STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS. NEVERTHELESS...AN UPGRADE TO
CRITICAL /PARTICULARLY OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS/ MAY BE WARRANTED IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS AS FUEL DRYNESS CONTINUES TO BE EVALUATED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html