SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL CA...SRN/CNTRL/ERN
NV...WRN UT...FAR SRN ID...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INLAND ON MON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS
FROM CA NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT W OF A GREAT PLAINS RIDGE.

...E-CNTRL CA...SRN/CNTRL/ERN NV...WRN UT...FAR SRN ID...
STRONG UPPER FLOW WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM
20-30 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AS A DRY AIRMASS ADVANCES EWD FROM THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS...SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RH VALUES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A CRITICAL
THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

...ERN ID...SWRN MT...
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE PROBABLE OVER MUCH OF ERN ID
AND SWRN MT. IN ADDITION...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID
TEENS. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY...AND
AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

...ERN CO...WRN KS...WRN NEB...
A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS
BY MON AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED
SURFACE SLYS NEAR 20 MPH. IN ADDITION...VERY HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL FAVOR MIN
RH VALUES FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...FAR ERN AZ/WRN NM...ERN UT...WRN CO...WRN/CNTRL WY...ERN
ID...S-CNTRL/SWRN MT...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THE PAC
NW TROUGH AND W OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD WEAK CAPE VALUES
FROM FAR ERN AZ/WRN NM NWD INTO SRN MT...AND WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MON AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES...AS WELL AS FASTER STORM MOTIONS
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..GARNER.. 06/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html