SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS...WITH ONE EMBEDDED CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD
FROM NRN NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED CYCLONE
TRACKING FROM CNTRL CA TO NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN AZ/NM AND MEXICO.
LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE FLOW STRENGTH WILL BE FOUND AROUND THESE
EMBEDDED CYCLONES. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE SWRN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN AGGREGATE PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY. A POLAR FRONT WILL SURGE
SWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN CONUS BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

...WRN TX...WRN OK...ERN/SRN NM...SWRN KS...FAR SERN CO...
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AGGREGATE PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE...AND AHEAD OF THE POLAR FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
DEEP DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
AROUND 10-20 PERCENT. WITH STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERLAYING THE
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...CRITICALLY STRONG SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS
OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
COMBINATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RH VALUES. AS
SUCH...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN NM AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE TX
TRANS-PECOS REGION INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF TX AND SRN PARTS OF THE
TX S PLAINS...WHERE THE LOWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S.

HOWEVER...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS
EXISTS FROM LATE D1/FRI INTO EARLY D2/SAT -- PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
STRONG WINDS/LOW RH. OWING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREAL
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND POTENTIAL FOR SUCH
PRECIPITATION TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...A CRITICAL AREA
HAS NOT BEEN OUTLINED AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD LOCALLY MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THERE TO SOME EXTENT. REGARDLESS...A CRITICAL AREA
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LACKING IN AREAS OF STRONG WIND...LOW RH...AND DRY FUELS.

...FL PANHANDLE AND WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA...
AS A DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS...RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH
OWING TO THE WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. ACCORDINGLY...FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

..COHEN.. 03/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html