SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NERN NM...PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN
KS...

...CNTRL/NERN NM...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...
THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION UPON COORDINATION
WITH THE ALBUQUERQUE...EL PASO...AMARILLO...PUEBLO...AND DODGE CITY
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED OVER THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN
STATES. THIS WILL SERVE TO ESTABLISH A 700-MB WIND SPEED MAXIMUM
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
TRAVERSING THE BROADER FLOW. AS VERTICAL MIXING DIURNALLY
DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...SWLY SFC WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES FROM 8 TO 13 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ENHANCING BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DRYING IN MANY
LOCATIONS. AND...WITH ONGOING DROUGHT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST
MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS.

...LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NM...SRN CO...NRN/ERN AZ...SRN UT...SRN NV...
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS A BROAD AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. WHILE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...CRITICALLY STRONG
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW.
ACCORDINGLY...CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 05/25/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0456 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO
OPEN UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH IT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHWARD...WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MIXING
OCCURRING UP TO NEAR 500 MB ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S AND 90S...ALONG WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS. THIS WILL FOSTER AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS
TO THE STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS.
THESE DISCREPANCIES PRECLUDE THE DELINEATION OF A CRITICAL FIRE
THREAT. IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD /20 MPH/ ON MORE THAN A TRANSIENT/LOCAL BASIS...A
CRITICAL RISK COULD BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA.

...MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
ONCE AGAIN...STRONG INSOLATION COUPLED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO DAYS
PRIOR...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THESE MODEST
/BUT SUB-CRITICAL/ WIND SPEEDS COUPLED WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html