SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CANADA WITH TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EWD ACROSS QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON...AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE W...A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NEB WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM NERN CO/SWRN NEB BY 00Z. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THIS LOW EWD ACROSS SRN NEB...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS. ...OH INTO PA...NY...AND NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NRN OH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAMPER DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS. STILL...MARGINAL HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST DURING THE DAY WITH EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FARTHER SW INTO WRN PA AND OH. HERE...STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE MORE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES. ...SRN SD...NEB...NERN CO...NRN KS... WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN EARLY STORMS AND A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT FROM SD INTO NRN NEB. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS EWD. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING ACROSS SWRN NEB INTO NERN CO WILL ERODE THE CAP AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ELY SURFACE FLOW NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MAINTAIN LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS...AND WIND PROFILES WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH PERHAPS AN MCS PROPAGATING SEWD ACROSS SRN NEB AND INTO NRN KS LATE. ..JEWELL.. 07/19/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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