SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB INTO CNTRL AND NRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN WI THROUGH UPPER MI... ...TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN/CNTRL KS... LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN AND SWRN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. A RECENT INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER SWRN KS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF A LEE LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS EVENING. ...SWRN WI..IA AND ERN NEB... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG FRONTAL SEGMENT HAVE EVOLVED INTO A BROKEN LINE FROM SWRN WI THROUGH NRN IA AND ERN NEB. SOME UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED FROM NWRN IA INTO EXTREME SERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MODEST THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z...BUT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THEY DEVELOP SWD. DAVENPORT 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. ...NRN WI THROUGH UPPER MI... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND TRAINING EWD ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM NRN WI INTO UPPER MI THROUGH LATE EVENING...SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD THROUGH NRN MN. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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