SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS EWD INTO MN AND FAR WRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF MT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...ROTATING AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL NEB AND WRN KS AND SWD INTO THE ERN NM. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE E...MODEST UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NERN STATES AROUND THE NRN SIDE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC HIGH...WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAY. ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM ND INTO NRN MN EARLY. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY TO REINVIGORATE ACROSS MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW INTO CNTRL SD...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SRN MN AND IA DURING THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. CAPPING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ...OH/PA/NY... MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE POOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM AIR MASS WITH LITTLE FOCUS...BUT A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL GIVEN MARGINAL 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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