SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE THE GENERAL WRN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE U.S. WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH PORTION OF THE WRN LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE...AND EVENTUALLY THE NRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SWD WITH TIME. FARTHER E...THE ERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT PROGGED TO LIE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON -- EXTENDING SWD TO A TRIPLE-POINT LOW INVOF KS. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING/W-E PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY AREA... STRONG CAPPING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. FARTHER N AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING...WHICH WILL INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY AS LIMITED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS...A CORRIDOR OF HAIL/WIND THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND ADJACENT WRN MN. FARTHER S -- NEARER THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION -- AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORM WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY INCREASE/SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT INTO ERN IA...THOUGH MAINLY ELEVATED AND SUB-SEVERE AFTER DARK. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- POSSIBLY ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING W-E COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST BRUSHING THIS AREA...SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT/ COULD SUPPORT SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST CELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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