SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS NRN MN INTO MB/ON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING SHOULD BE NOTED. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB INTO MN DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A CONTINUATION OF LATE DAY2 CONVECTION AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVE ADEQUATE FOR RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ITSELF FROM MN...SWWD ACROSS NEB INTO NERN CO. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER ANY DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THIS REGION DURING DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...THOUGH NAM SUGGESTS A WEAK IMPULSE COULD EMERGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 24/00Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION OF NERN CO/SERN WY AND ALONG STALLED SFC FRONT. HAIL/WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS KS INTO SERN NEB ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE. ...ERN TN/KY/SRN APPALACHIANS... WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS ERN TN/KY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AND A BELT OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ENCOURAGE A FEW STRONG MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME BUT STRONG SUNSHINE AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 06/21/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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