SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF KS...OK INTO MO...AR AND EXTREME NWRN MS... ...KS AND OK THROUGH WRN MO AND NRN/CNTRL AR... THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 03-04Z OVER NRN OK AS LINEAR MCS MOVES SWD THROUGH A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EVENING RAOB DATA FROM NORMAN SHOWS 4000 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DEMISE OF STORMS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND FORWARD PROPAGATE SSEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO. IF THIS OCCURS A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT WOULD EXIST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LIKELIHOOD OF ONLY A MODEST WLY LLJ OVERNIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER WRN MO/NRN AR WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ON ERN FRINGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD THEY DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED NWLY FLOW REGIME AND MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH AROUND 02Z. ...SERN STATES... ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FROM THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. HOWEVER...A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ..DIAL.. 06/28/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
Be First to Comment