SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 AM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL IL SWD INTO AR AND NRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WITH UPPER LOW CENTER CUTTING OFF OVER IA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL DEVELOP FROM MO/AR EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING FROM THE GULF COAST NWD TO THE OH RIVER DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE AREA. TO THE E...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY FROM VA NWWD INTO LOWER MI...WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS DEVELOPING ACROSS VA. ...LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY... A COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY REINFORCED BY MORNING OUTFLOW...WILL PROGRESS EWD ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLING ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH MAY COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF HEATING IN AREAS...BUT OTHER AREAS WILL INDEED SEE HEATING ESPECIALLY FROM IL INTO ERN AR AND LA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO LACK OF CAPPING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK. MIXED STORM MODES APPEAR LIKELY...WITH A FEW BOWS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL. THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW...AND THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL. ...MUCH OF CNTRL VA INTO SRN MD... STRONG HEATING WITH SLY WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM NRN NC INTO VA AND MD. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY. ...CNTRL OK INTO SRN KS OVERNIGHT... WHILE STRONG UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE E...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. WHILE DOWNWARD MOTION WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY...A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION. IF THIS OCCURS...SOME HAIL COULD RESULT...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..JEWELL/COHEN.. 06/09/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html
Be First to Comment