SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID-LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE INVOF THE KS/MO BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD TO THE SRN OH VICINITY LATE...WHILE BROADER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY INVOF THE MID MS/TN VALLEY AREA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD OH AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TOWARD THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO INVOF THE SC COAST ALONG A WEDGE FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MOVING NWD ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AND SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE SRN FL COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN ATTM...WITH STORMS ONGOING PRIOR TO THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COMPLICATING THE PICTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. WITH A WEDGE FRONT LIKELY TO LIE W-E ACROSS GA EARLY -- POSSIBLY BEING REINFORCED BY ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF THE BOUNDARY...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO SRN GA AND INTO N FL ON THE S SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR WITH RESPECT TO SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT...WITH MORE CERTAINTY NOW EXISTING THAT THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE MORNING. THUS -- WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL UNLIKELY ALONG THE NC/NRN SC COAST...FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GA/FL AREA. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING INVOF THE SC COAST EARLY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN GA/FL IS LIKELY TO ALREADY BE VEERED/SWLY. THEREFORE...WITH LITTLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELD...EXPECT ANY TORNADO THREAT TO BE SUBDUED. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS -- WHICH AGAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME...AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MAKES MORE SUBSTANTIAL SWD PROGRESS ACROSS FL IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING OF THE OFFSHORE LOW. ..GOSS.. 03/23/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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