SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD...AS AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SEWD AND MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. -- THOUGH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE/BACKGROUND RIDGING. MEANWHILE...A LOW-AMPLITUDE/SRN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD -- ALONG WITH THE WRN PORTION OF A WEAK W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MUCH OF NEB AND VICINITY... A WEAK VORT MAX CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION IS FORECAST TO ASSIST IN AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH ALONG A LEE TROUGH AND EWD INVOF A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIE ACROSS THE KS/NEB VICINITY...AS DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...BOUNDARY-LAYER SELYS VEERING TO WLY AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAKLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUBTLE FEATURES CROSSING THE PLAINS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE DO EXIST...WILL INTRODUCE LOW /5%/ PROBABILITY FOR HAIL/WIND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY AS A FEW STRONGER CELLS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN. ..GOSS.. 05/15/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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