SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CONUS AS WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RIDGING WILL BE NOTED ALOFT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH 500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD APPROACH DRY ADIABATIC BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM WRN KS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND THIS IS WHERE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG. IF SFC DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID 50S AS CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT DEEP CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3000+ J/KG ACROSS TX. WHILE BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 22Z. STEEP LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. ...OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SRN EDGE OF CYCLONIC WLYS WILL EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THURSDAY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PROVE NEGLIGIBLE IT APPEARS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL EXTEND ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY...EWD INTO VA/NC. DEEP WLY FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION...AND IF SUFFICIENT CONVECTION MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...LOW SEVERE PROBS MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS REGION. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL ADDRESS INSTABILITY/COVERAGE ISSUES AND 5 PERCENT HAIL/WIND MAY BE ADDED DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 05/15/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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