SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...EXTREME NERN CO...NWRN KS INTO A PORTION OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB... ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LBF 00Z RAOB INDICATES 1800 J/KG MLCAPE AND AROUND 30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE LLJ IS STRENGTHENING AND UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. A SMALL WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS INCREASE IN SIZE AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER AND PROPAGATE EWD THROUGH SRN/CNTRL NEB. LATER TONIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE ACROSS NERN NEB INTO SERN SD AND NWRN IA WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT MAY POSE AT LEAST A MODEST RISK FOR HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REF SWOMCD 793. ...SRN PLAINS... ISOLATED STORMS PERSIST SWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO INTO ERN NM WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENTS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. OTHER MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN THROUGH CNTRL OK ARE WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. ..DIAL.. 05/25/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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