Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 VALID 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE WESTERLIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO CANADA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK /DAYS 4-7/...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. FOR DAY 4/MONDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCES THE REGION AND A SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHER SEVERE TSTMS...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DAY 5/TUESDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SOME SEVERE TSTMS PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS/MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...INCLUDING PARTS OF KS INTO WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX. BY DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...A SIMILAR SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY IN ADDITION TO THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST EACH OF THESE DAYS...30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR WARRANTED...OWING TO SOME INITIAL PERIOD UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL TIMING AND INCREASING GUIDANCE VARIABILITY THEREAFTER.
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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