SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF KS...CENTRAL AND WRN OK...AND WRN PART OF NORTH TX... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO ... FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS KS AND ALSO GLANCE NRN HALF OF OK THROUGH 12Z THU. A SURFACE LOW...ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL MOVE EWD FROM SWRN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH WRN OK TO NW TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING NEWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND THEN EWD TO CENTRAL MO...WILL ADVANCE NNEWD TONIGHT...REACHING NERN KS AND THE MO/IA BORDER WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. FORCING WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS OK/KS ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ TO 40 KT WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. AND...EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AT LEAST TWO MCS/S IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN OK AND KS. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE HAIL... SOME VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO ADVANCE FARTHER E/NEWD INTO ERN KS AND PART OF NERN OK...THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY. 12Z HIGH-RES NMM/NSSL SUGGESTED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING NRN MO/FAR SRN IA AND WEST CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER WITH NEWD EXTENT...THE ERN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT. ...PARTS OF THE OH/UPPER TN VALLEYS TO NC AND PA... ONGOING...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY...AND ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HAVE LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH 12Z THU. ..PETERS.. 05/09/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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