SPC MD 1016

MD 1016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN CO / NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE / WRN OK PANHANDLE / FAR SWRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE / WRN OK
PANHANDLE / FAR SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 102019Z - 102215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN/EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM ERN NM ARCING NEWD INTO SWRN KS.  SURFACE TEMPS
HAVE RECENTLY BREACHED 100 DEG F ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 30S NEAR THE RATON MESA TO AROUND 50
OVER THE CNTRL OK PANHANDLE.  RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE
BUOYANCY /AOA 1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ WITH DEEPLY MIXED INVERTED-V
PROFILES FEATURING NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE
SURFACE-H5.  AS 15 KT WLY MEAN WIND SERVES TO AID IN AN EWD MOVEMENT
OF STORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE PLAINS...UPDRAFTS WILL MOVE
INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW /0.75 INCH/.  AS A RESULT...ISOLD STORMS
WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE MICROBURST THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER NERN NM
AND FAR SERN CO AND SPREAD EWD INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF TX/OK/KS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35480567 36330478 37020447 37550336 37730177 37380121
            36940117 36190194 34800397 34630481 34820534 35480567

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1016.html