SPC MD 1024

MD 1024 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341…342… FOR PORTIONS WRN KS…SMALL PART OF NERN NM…OK/TX PANHANDLES…SWRN NEB.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0812 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN KS...SMALL PART OF NERN NM...OK/TX
PANHANDLES...SWRN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341...342...

VALID 030112Z - 030315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
341...342...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...EXISTING WWS MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY MCS...WHICH
WILL STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSTANTIALLY.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR ERN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM INFLECTION POINT/BOW ECHO OVER OLDHAM COUNTY TX ESEWD ACROSS
EXTREME SRN OK...MOVING NWD 10-15 KT.  LENGTHY QLCS WAS MOVING EWD
OUT OF CO OVER SWRN NEB...EXTREME WRN KS...GUY AREA AND NRN/WRN TX
PANHANDLE...AS AGGREGATION OF EARLIER COLD POOLS.  FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND FORCED ASCENT SHOULD KEEP SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AT
OR NEAR SVR LEVELS EWD OVER WRN KS AND PANHANDLES.  MLCINH WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING
STABILIZES NEAR-SFC LAYER...AND ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER BASE GETS
HIGHER AGL.  HOWEVER...THIS EFFECT WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED/SLOWED TO
SOME EXTENT BY BOUNDARY-LAYER MOIST ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY N OF SFC
WARM FRONT.  AS SUCH...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR E THIS
ACTIVITY CAN LAST AT SVR LEVELS INTO SWRN KS AND WRN OK...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD POOL EVIDENT IN SFC ISALLOBARIC/ISALLOTHERMAL
PLOTS.  RELATIVELY BACKED WINDS N OF WARM FRONT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.

..EDWARDS.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...BOU...
ABQ...

LAT...LON   34530353 35140261 35720258 36590263 36920192 41050205
            41270150 39879994 37209925 35559955 34580008 34460169
            34530353

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1024.html