MD 1032 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE…NWRN OK…PORTIONS OF SWRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 032025Z - 032200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY. DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL PARCELS NOW APPROACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM LIPSCOMB TO DONLEY COUNTIES IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MATURATION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE COMPLEXES ACROSS WRN/NRN OK LATER THIS EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING INTO THIS REGION AND EXPECTED DIURNAL INCREASE IN LLJ THAT SHOULD FOCUS INTO CNTRL OK AFTER DARK. INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OK IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER AND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. ..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35260112 37320036 37149926 34989994 34670075 35260112
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1032.html
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