SPC MD 1039

MD 1039 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 347… FOR SERN KS…NERN OK…SWRN MO…NWRN AR


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 347...

VALID 040047Z - 040145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE TO THE E/NE OF WW 347
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WITHIN A
W-E ORIENTATION IN SERN KS.

DISCUSSION...SMALL BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE HAS FLARED UP RECENTLY OVER SERN KS....TO THE NW
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SWRN MO/NERN
AR. ALTHOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FARTHER SW IN WRN OK THIS EVENING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY RESULT IN DEEPENING CONVECTION GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY NOTED IN 00Z SGF/OUN RAOBS.
WITH STRONGER SPEED SHEAR CONFINED TO THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
HILLSBORO KS WIND PROFILER...PRIMARY INITIAL RISK SHOULD BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36929708 37359701 37979634 38169543 38069433 37599332
            37119314 36199348 35879452 35899568 36169629 36929708

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1039.html