MD 1043 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 347… FOR WRN/CNTRL OK…SERN KS…NWRN TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...SERN KS...NWRN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 347...
VALID 040246Z - 040345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...REPLACEMENT OF WW 347 WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING
CONSIDERED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARING TO EXIST WITH RECENT
DEVELOPING TSTM CLUSTER OVER W-CNTRL OK.
DISCUSSION...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS RECENTLY INITIATED IN W-CNTRL
OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. WITHIN AN
ARCING BAND OF RICHER SURFACE DEW POINTS /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S/ PRESENT FROM S-CNTRL INTO W-CNTRL OK...THIS CLUSTER
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE INTERFERENCE FROM CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WITH A DYING CLUSTER INVOF CDS ALONG WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL WLYS OVERNIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH POOR MODEL GUIDANCE
PERFORMANCE THIS EVENING...BREEDS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS CLUSTER
SHOULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. ONE SCENARIO IS FOR A SLOW-MOVING E/SEWD
MOVING CLUSTER WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL. FARTHER NE...PERSISTENTLY DIVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
CONTINUE TO CURTAIL MORE ROBUST TSTM COVERAGE WITH A SHRINKING
CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS SERN KS.
..GRAMS.. 06/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35670009 36059893 37009749 37659685 37759632 37569611
36879592 35709661 34599710 33959764 33789809 33859918
34120012 34759998 35670009
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1043.html
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