SPC MD 1054

MD 1054 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE/TX PANHANDLE…NERN NM


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE/TX
PANHANDLE...NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042059Z - 042230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT INTO EARLY
EVENING. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY SPORADIC INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEST ELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
REGENERATIVE CONVECTION OVER ERN FLANKS OF EXPANDING COLD
POOLS...WHILE SLOW NET WWD STORM MOTION EVENTUALLY OCCURS. DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
SUPPORT INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND
GUSTS...AIDED BY SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN EXCESS OF 30F
IN MANY LOCATIONS BENEATH A DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH ANY SVR THREAT SHORT-LIVED. UNLESS UPSCALE GROWTH
OCCURS...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39400092 37510122 36100163 35910313 36200401 37720400
            39090361 39670292 39850192 39400092

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1054.html