SPC MD 1066

MD 1066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN CO…FAR SRN NEB PANHANDLE…SWRN NEB…WRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR SRN NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131914Z - 132045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THEN SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SRN NEB
PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB...AND WRN KS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM
SERN CO INTO SERN WY AT 1845Z...WITH A DCVZ OBSERVED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER NERN CO. ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS DESTABILIZING STRONGLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 70S AND
80S. E OF THE FRONT...A MOIST BUT SOMEWHAT STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXISTS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S CAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 750 MB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE E ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY IN THE
MIDLEVELS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KT AT 6 KM AGL. THIS
WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB AND WRN KS...POSSIBLY
IN THE FORM OF A SMALL MCS.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37210347 38150483 39510562 40810508 41290281 40700129
            38040027 37080149 37210347

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1066.html