SPC MD 1076

MD 1076 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN NEB…WRN IA…NERN KS…NWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140728Z - 140930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS ERN NEB...AND
MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE MO RIVER
VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK MIDLEVEL FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS
NEB...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY A CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER SWRN
NEB. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STORMS WERE ALSO FORMING OVER S-CNTRL
NEB...WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING.

A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE MO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A NARROW RIBBON
OF MODERATE AND UNCAPPED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THE
APPROACHING MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP REINFORCE LIFT WITH A
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER ERN NEB.
WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGESTS MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE...AND GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE...LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR
WITH MAX SIZE AROUND 1.00 TO 1.75 IN DIAMETER.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 06/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   39579677 39839855 40039911 40279972 40549978 40799955
            41029889 41449840 42079832 42539797 42639748 42509662
            42279613 41949569 41529532 40739500 40169486 39679513
            39459569 39579677

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