SPC MD 1090

MD 1090 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN CO…FAR SERN WY…SRN NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN NEB…WRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR SERN WY...SRN NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN
NEB...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151953Z - 152130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND LARAMIE MOUNTAINS IN WY. A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN WY...SRN NEB
PANHANDLE...AND ERN CO...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS LIKELY AS
ACTIVITY ENTERS SWRN NEB AND WRN KS. LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY
SIG/...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 21Z OVER SERN WY...NERN CO...AND
THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 1930Z SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD FROM CNTRL NEB INTO SERN CO. SURFACE WINDS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE VEERING TO ELY...WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DESTABILIZING. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOW/MID 50S...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER IS AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500
J/KG. IN ADDITION...AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME ELY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STRONGLY VEER TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH
WILL YIELD LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. CUMULUS ARE QUICKLY DEEPENING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
AND THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS IN WY. CURRENT THINKING IS STORMS WILL
EVOLVE OFF OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AS THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY SIG OVER SERN WY...NERN CO...AND
THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE/...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY ENTERS SWRN NEB AND WRN KS.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37470315 38710478 41400556 41950469 41070184 38200084
            37470315

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1090.html