SPC MD 1092

MD 1092 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315… FOR ERN CO…WRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315...

VALID 152357Z - 160100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG-SVR TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS E-CNTRL CO...AND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND
AND LARGE HAIL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HRS INTO WRN KS. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO WW 315 ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS
MOVING THROUGH LINCOLN/WASHINGTON/KIT CARSON COUNTIES CO...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E-SEWD NEAR/N OF A SFC LOW POSITIONED NEAR
LAA...AND A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS W-CNTRL
KS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A PROGRESSIVELY MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AND PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH THROUGH OUTFLOW/CELL
INTERACTIONS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME DMGG WINDS. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF MOTION INDICATES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 315 PRIOR TO EXPIRATION AT
03Z...AND MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO BE ADDED IN WRN KS.

..ROGERS.. 06/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37950100 37680228 38020421 38640470 40590532 41150526
            41360504 41600411 41580342 40990244 40040211 39730127
            39150074 38550084 37950100

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1092.html