MD 1093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SWRN AND S-CNTRL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160210Z - 160315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCTD TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A COMPOSITE BOUNDARY OVER SWRN KS...AND MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE
CONSOLIDATION INTO A LINE AND AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG WIND
THREAT...WHICH COULD REQUIRE A NEW WW.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY ALONG A COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN KS. THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING
SAMPLED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MODERATELY MOIST BUT
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER....CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 750
J/KG. HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION SOMEWHAT...WITH DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS...FAVORING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY ATTM SURROUNDS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSOLIDATION INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS...WHICH COULD POSE A MORE WIDESPREAD
DMGG WIND THREAT ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE
LIMITED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND FORECAST FOR ONLY A MODEST
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO ASSESS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT NEED FOR A WW.
..ROGERS/HART.. 06/16/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37949766 37489769 37229857 37210083 37790187 38110184
38370145 38480019 38489923 38489855 38419782 37949766
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1093.html
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