MD 1094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160422Z - 160515Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER OF TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN INTO SCNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS HAVE RESULTED IN A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS WRN/SWRN KS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION IS THE RESULT OF MIGRATING HIGH PLAINS STORMS AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG E-W FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DDC EXHIBITED STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION. WHILE LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE APPRECIABLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT SWLY INFLOW OFF THE SFC SHOULD ENCOURAGE SLOW-MOVING MCS TO SPREAD ACROSS SRN KS. SPEED OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS OUTFLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE BUT HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER CORES. ..DARROW/HART.. 06/16/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38750029 38229731 37099758 37440065 38750029
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