SPC MD 1097

MD 1097 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 362… FOR SERN WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO/FAR NWRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO/FAR NWRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362...

VALID 080143Z - 080215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 362 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND
02Z WHICH IS THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME FOR WW 362.  IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD SOME INTO
SWRN NEB AND POSSIBLY FAR NWRN KS.  THUS...COORDINATION WILL OCCUR
SOON WITH AFFECTED WFO/S IN THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS OVER NERN CO
INTO NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB REMAINS MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE. THIS
COMBINED WITH A 30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH 35 KT WLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS MAINTAINING STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  EFFECTIVE
SRH HAS INCREASED TO 200-300 M2/S2 AS EXPECTED AND WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN CO.
WEAKER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS
HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER LCLS /ABOVE 2000 M/ AS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER W.  OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
THREATS AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING.

MODELS SUGGEST STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS MOVING ESEWD THROUGH
SWRN NEB AND MUCH OF NERN-EAST CENTRAL CO.

..PETERS.. 06/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38600399 39160448 40470450 41170469 41510386 41560236
            41360136 40280157 38470190 38500300 38600399

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