SPC MD 1122

MD 1122 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182004Z - 182130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN KS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A NW-SE
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS. OTHER STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL KS ALONG A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP /ON THE ORDER OF
6.5-7 C/KM/. HOWEVER...LOW-MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONG DIABATIC
WARMING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING 1500-2000
J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT SUGGESTING
MULTICELLS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. STRONGEST STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WHERE A SWD MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS INTERSECTING THE FRONT OVER NERN KS. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT PARAMETER
SPACE DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED SEVERE
EVENTS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   39899709 39539616 39169543 38539464 38259504 38959667
            39289945 39869988 40019857 39899709

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1122.html