SPC MD 1140

MD 1140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CO…NM…TX…OK…KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CO...NM...TX...OK...KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121902Z - 122030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WATCH WILL
BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED NWS WFOS SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...A BROAD BELT OF 30-40KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ATOP INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY/SELY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUALLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE TODAY. FURTHER
SUPPORT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXIST IN THE
FORM OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE BACKED INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND A LEE/THERMAL LOW AND WARM FRONT FORMING OVER SERN CO
ATTM. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AND SUPPORT MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT AND STORM
SUSTENANCE AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
RATON PASS IN NERN NM AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN SERN NM.

INITIAL STORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND WITH
TIME EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE STORM COMPLEXES
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM W TX NWD TO WRN KS.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36590207 35050224 34610278 34490429 34970491 35810512
            36640524 37600484 38210424 38380324 38290273 38150231
            37730185 37450177 36590207

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1140.html