SPC MD 1143

MD 1143 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR ERN CO…WRN KS…OK PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN CO...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202244Z - 210045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR ERN
CO...WRN KS...AND THE OK PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRIMARY THREAT IS SVR WIND/HAIL. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW
TO MERIT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF TCU ALONG
THE SRN CO/KS BORDER TO THE E OF A LEE LOW ACROSS SE CO. ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THIS AREA IS VERY WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEG F. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 DEG C PER KM...SUPPORTING A MODERATELY
TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J PER KG
PER MESOANALYSIS/. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS GENERALLY ESTIMATED AROUND 16 DEG C. AS
SUCH...DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...SOME CINH LIKELY
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR A ML PARCEL. CONTINUED MIXING IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY
THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO MERIT WW ISSUANCE.

..MOSIER/CARBIN.. 06/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36760277 37260277 38460270 39180257 39480194 39400132
            39060046 38170005 37409989 37099994 36740039 36420179
            36510251 36760277

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1143.html