SPC MD 1161

MD 1161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NWRN/N-CNTRL KS…CNTRL/ERN NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CNTRL KS...CNTRL/ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141841Z - 141945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ONE OR MORE WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 18Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW ACROSS WRN MN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR OFK AND THEN SWWD TO GLD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES A0A 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO
NO MLCINH REMAINING. INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WEAK
SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BELOW 25 KTS AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BELOW
30 KTS/ WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS UTILIZE COPIOUS INSTABILITY.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39819776 38700023 38280173 38950198 39230178 40290008
            41279828 41969745 42169694 42199654 41979631 40529676
            39819776

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