MD 1164 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR WRN TX PANHANDLE…WRN OK PANHANDLE…FAR SERN CO…FAR SWRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN
CO...FAR SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142014Z - 142115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES NWD INTO
FAR SERN CO AND FAR SWRN KS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IS OCCURRING ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER TO THE W OF LBB...AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL AS CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FARTHER N...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP DEEPEN A SFC
LOW LOCATED ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN NM HAS BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING. ELY STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
TO PROGRESS INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /19Z MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUE AOA 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA/.
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND THIS COULD HELP AID IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS INTENSIFY
ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...
LAT...LON 32810218 33280294 36270299 38190275 38320110 36900103
36410111 33210119 32810218
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1164.html
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