SPC MD 1166

MD 1166 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390…391… FOR WRN IA…SRN NEB…FAR NW MO…NRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA...SRN NEB...FAR NW MO...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390...391...

VALID 142307Z - 150030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
390...391...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN WATCHES 390 AND
391 FROM WRN IA SWWD INTO NW KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS
OF NRN KS AND FAR NW MO LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE
GRADUALLY ESEWD.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NW IA SWWD INTO SRN NEB ON WHICH A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE MID 60S F WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S F IN WRN
IA TO THE UPPER 90S F IN NRN KS. THIS IS RESULTING IN STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 4000
J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE PRISTINE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE
WSR-88D VWP AT HASTINGS SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING...A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD HELP
THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO BECOME ENHANCED WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
SHORT-TERM MODELS MOVE THE LINE GRADUALLY ESEWD INTO NE KS...SW IA
AND FAR NW MO LATER THIS EVENING WHERE WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

..BROYLES/WEISS/GARNER.. 06/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
GLD...

LAT...LON   42589513 41769590 40449741 40179887 39930024 39380069
            38549994 38339750 39149569 40229475 41349396 42389416
            42589513

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1166.html