MD 1167 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392… FOR SWRN KS…WRN OK…TX/OK PANHANDLES…NWRN TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...WRN OK...TX/OK PANHANDLES...NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392... VALID 150112Z - 150245Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR WW 392 CONTINUES. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 392 OVER WRN OK AND NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR WEATHER THREAT. DISCUSSION...AT 01Z...COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED SWWD INTO SWRN KS...WHILE AN ARCING LINE OF STORM CLUSTERS EXTENDED SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AREA RAOBS AT 00Z...AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE...INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WITH AN MUCAPE VALUE DERIVED FROM THE OUN SOUNDING NEAR 5500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL SLY JET MAY AID IN STORM MAINTENANCE AND INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF WW 392. HOWEVER...SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS STORMS APPROACH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. ..GARNER.. 06/15/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 32980011 32980289 38260269 39099902 35249904 32980011
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