SPC MD 1177

MD 1177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX/OK PANHANDLES…TX SOUTH PLAINS…SW TX…FAR SE CO…FAR SW KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX SOUTH PLAINS...SW TX...FAR SE
CO...FAR SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222241Z - 222345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO WITH TSTM
COVERAGE THEN INCREASING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SVR TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE WITH SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT NOTED ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND SW TX NOTED AS
WELL. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LEE LOW ACROSS SE CO WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD TO JUST W OF AMA THEN SWWD TO INK /IN SW TX/. THE
ENVIRONMENT E OF THE DRYLINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. THIS WARM AND
MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /AOA 8.5 DEG C PER KG/...PROMOTING MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS.

AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...LIMITING HEATING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
MESOANALYSIS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CINH REMAINS. AS SUCH...TSTM
INITIATION IS EXPECTED SOON WITH AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...SVR TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 06/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...

LAT...LON   32250178 32010281 32330305 34110224 35870218 36730243
            37860296 37950112 36660036 35800028 34410040 32740138
            32250178

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1177.html