SPC MD 1179

MD 1179 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395… FOR ERN CO…NW KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395...

VALID 160000Z - 160130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS ERN CO
AND NW KS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST
OF WW 395.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING EAST OF THE
LIMON AREA ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ANALYZED TO
EXTEND NWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS. MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE
MCD AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT GOODLAND SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A BOWING LINE
SEGMENT LATER THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40179931 40170144 40020243 39580284 39310293 38670290
            38410223 38330151 38350062 38509897 39189867 39759873
            40179931

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