SPC MD 1181

MD 1181 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398… FOR ERN CO…NW KS…FAR SW NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW KS...FAR SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398...

VALID 160347Z - 160515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NW KS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE...ANOTHER WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED LATE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A LINE SEGMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST
TO THE EAST OF GOODLAND ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL HELP THE LINE TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELL
ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED TRANSITIONING THE
CONVECTION TO AN ELEVATED STATE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE A THREAT AS THE LINE
MOVES TOWARD THE HAYS AND GREAT BEND AREAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38700011 38700206 38580205 38600319 39540316 39530275
            40420274 40410205 40330200 40320020 38700011

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