SPC MD 1182

MD 1182 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SW KS…FAR NRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...FAR NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160425Z - 160600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP AS THE SRN END OF A
LINE OF STORMS MOVES SEWD ACROSS SW KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT BUT
THE LINE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR TREND CHANGES. WW ISSUANCE
COULD BE NECESSARY IF THE LINE SHOWS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION.

DISCUSSION...THE SRN END OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN KS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR THE KS-OK STATELINE
EXTENDING NWWD RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ESTIMATED BY THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 35 KT JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE LINE SUGGESTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE. SOME SHORT-TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A LINEAR MCS AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SW KS AND INTO NRN OK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   38229936 38610037 38610114 38300180 37890198 37620183
            37280125 37060074 36739948 36759850 37169813 37719809
            38229936

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