SPC MD 1185

MD 1185 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160910Z - 161015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WILL PROGRESS ESEWD DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH ICT AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OK.  THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED
STRONGER WIND GUST AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER
HOUR.

DISCUSSION...AN EXPANDING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER SWRN-SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW MOVING ESEWD
AROUND 40 KT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...NOTED IN RADAR ANALYSIS INTO KIOWA COUNTY...APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED INTO COMANCHE COUNTY KS
EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE ALREADY ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH THE
ESEWD MOVING TSTM CLUSTER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE STORMS THAT
FORMED ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVE
THROUGH SRN KS AND WRN OK AND THEIR MERGERS WITH THE SRN KS
CLUSTER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE EXPERIENCING ITS
PEAK INTENSITY.

LOW LEVEL WAA PER A 40 KT SLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SRN KS SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTAIN THE COLD POOL AND
SUBSEQUENT STRONGER WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  A SOMEWHAT SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE TO THIS THREAT EWD TO AROUND ICT SUGGESTS A WATCH WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37719957 38059896 37889750 37609675 37089714 36729780
            36749862 36909929 37719957

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1185.html