SPC MD 1186

MD 1186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME ERN KS…SRN IA THROUGH NWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS...SRN IA THROUGH NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 161640Z - 161815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO
AND SRN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SFC LOW
IN EXTREME NERN KS SWWD THROUGH ERN AND SRN KS. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN IA. DECAYING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR REMNANT GRAVITY WAVE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY FROM
NCNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN
WAKE OF THE INITIAL OUTFLOW AND EAST OF TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN KS
THROUGH MUCH OF MO AND SRN IA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS PLUME OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD ABOVE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO
2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. PROFILER DATA FROM HOBART KS INDICATE
A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KM SOUTH OF AN MCV LOCATED
OVER NERN KS.

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
ERN KS...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MCV. AS THIS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
EXTREME ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND SWRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY
MODEST SUPPORTING MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...A SMALL ZONE OF 35-40
KT SHEAR EXISTS WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE
MCV...SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

..DIAL/HART.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37709549 38999511 40039524 41139515 41409301 39969236
            37879369 37709549

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1186.html