SPC MD 1188

MD 1188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231956Z - 232130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BAND OF STORMS EVOLVING ACROSS NRN MO ATTM MAY POSE AN
INCREASED SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A MOIST/VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL MO ATTM...WITH MIXED-LAYER
CAPE RANGING FROM 3500 TO 4000 J/KG.  STORMS ARE INCREASING
ATTM...MAINLY JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
WHICH HAS PUSHED SWD ACROSS NRN MO.  WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT BUT OUTFLOW...SLY FEED OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR ATOP THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  FURTHER...THE ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL
WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY ENHANCED SHEAR /LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO
WSWLY AT 40 KT PER AREA VWP/PROFILERS/ AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS
SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  GIVEN
THE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD LIKEWISE RAMP UP AT LEAST MODESTLY -- POSSIBLY REQUIRING
EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/KERR.. 06/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39669130 38949020 38219028 37689364 38029462 39089421
            39329355 39309209 39669130

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1188.html