SPC MD 1190

MD 1190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF E CNTRL AND SE KS…MUCH OF SWRN THRU CNTRL/E CNTRL MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL AND SE KS...MUCH OF SWRN THRU
CNTRL/E CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 162236Z - 170000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WW THIS EVENING SOUTH OF WWS 400 AND
401.

DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
IOWA...NEW...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA IN RESPONSE TO
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION.  INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH
EASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MAY STILL BE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...BUT WITH A GRADUAL VEERING OF MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THIS MAY WEAKEN
WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING.  COINCIDING WITH MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW
OF MOIST AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS/...INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION BY 00-03Z...WITH A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VICINITY.

..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38419480 38969412 39219294 39249188 38739092 37969088
            37279211 37109356 37259445 37589511 37899522 38419480

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1190.html