SPC MD 1192

MD 1192 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN CO…SWRN KS…OK/TX PANHANDLES…NWRN TX


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232212Z - 232345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM SERN CO/SWRN KS SWD INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES AND PORTIONS OF NWRN TX. THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO
MARGINAL FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AT 22Z...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM N-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO SERN CO...WITH
A DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM THE FRONT INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S ALONG THE
DRYLINE...WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 PRESENT OVER SERN CO. STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS AIDING IN HIGH BASED CUMULUS
GROWTH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STARTING TO DRIFT EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN CO AND NERN
NM/WRN OK PANHANDLE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AIDING IN
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH
VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 06/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   33940214 35490211 36470255 36980297 37200337 37850327
            37960202 37880085 37340016 36109995 34420022 33380122
            33940214

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1192.html