MD 1192 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NERN NM/SERN CO…TX/OK PANHANDLES…SWRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM/SERN CO...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162324Z - 170100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. WW
DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM.
DISCUSSION...AT 23Z...COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SMALL CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E AT 30 KT OVER NERN NM...WITH NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY E NEAR THE NM/OK BORDER.
ADDITIONAL STORMS...WHICH INCLUDED A BRIEF RM SUPERCELL...WERE
LOCATED 20 SSE OF PUB IN SERN CO. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE NM ACTIVITY
IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
IN ADDITION...SURFACE TO 1 KM FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BACK...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE SR INFLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION IN NM AND
CO. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW-LEVEL SELYS VEERING TO
WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED MCS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING/NIGHT IF STORM COVERAGE CAN
INCREASE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH ATTM TO SUGGEST A WW
WILL BE NECESSARY.
..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36660384 37710331 37900191 37680009 36889954 35839976
35420058 35480338 36660384
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1192.html
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