SPC MD 1194

MD 1194 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SRN NEB…NRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232350Z - 240115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY BE DELAYED OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN KS AND SRN NEB UNTIL AFTER DARK. AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONVERGENT INVOF A MODIFIED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS THAT INTERSECTS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER
N-CNTRL KS. IN ADDITION...STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUD COVER HAS EXPANDED
ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT CAPPING
CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE LOW. FARTHER
WSW...DEEPER CUMULUS GROWTH IS OCCURRING WITHIN A HOT WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER 55 NNE OF GCK. THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
SHORT-TERM. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION N OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS NEWD INTO ERN
NEB...WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER DARK AS A 40+ KT SLY LOW-LEVEL
JET OVER RIDES THE BOUNDARIES. AMPLE MOISTURE AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD LARGE MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
3000-4000 J/KG. AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VEERING WIND PROFILES...A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
ACTIVITY WILL BE SURFACE BASED GIVEN STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER DARK...BUT LARGE HAIL WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE
AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 06/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38240069 39430096 40689930 41079735 40569590 39929545
            39259585 38879797 38240069

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