SPC MD 1196

MD 1196 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352… FOR ERN CO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352...

VALID 240119Z - 240215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CONTINUES OVER ERN CO. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS STORMS E OF DEN APPROACH KS/NEB. A NEW WW WILL
BE ISSUED E OF WW 352.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM WAS OBSERVED IN HI-RES RADAR
IMAGERY APROX 40-50 NM E OF DEN...WITH ANOTHER SEVERE
STORM/SUPERCELL MOVING NEWD OVER OTERO COUNTY...AND A THIRD SEVERE
STORM OVER FAR ERN BACA COUNTY. AIRMASS IS STILL WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
OVER FAR ERN CO TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IMMEDIATELY E OF THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES YIELDS MLCAPE
VALUES FROM 500-1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...10-20 KT ELY FLOW OVER THE
LOWEST 2 KM AGL VEERS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE WSW IN THE
MIDLEVELS...WHICH FAVORS STORM ORGANIZATION AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
THUS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 352. DUE TO THE
LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES WILL AID IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

IN ADDITION...ACTIVITY E OF DEN MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/NEB BORDER. DUE TO THIS SCENARIO...A NEW
WW WILL BE ISSUED E OF WW 352.

..GARNER.. 06/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41000501 41030171 38620169 37000203 37000307 37630307
            37650406 38500405 38510494 39130503 39120532 39540506
            40340506 40350494 41000501

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