SPC MD 1196

MD 1196 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PART OF FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 170754Z - 171030Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN MO COUNTIES OF NERN
VERNON...SRN ST CLAIR AND NRN CEDAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SERN KS AND SOME SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE VERNON/ST CLAIR/CEDAR COUNTIES ACTIVITY WILL RESULT
IN A 30-35 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM 35 ENE CNU TO 25 NE SGF
HAVING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TRAINING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES.

DISCUSSION...WIND PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWP DATA ACROSS SRN KS...OK
INTO SWRN MO INDICATED A 20-25 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SERN
KS/SWRN MO...WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WAA SINCE 04-05Z.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED A BAND
OF STORMS THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVER FAR NRN VERNON TO NRN ST
CLAIR COUNTIES BETWEEN 03-05Z HAS PRODUCED A COLD POOL WITH SLOW SWD
MOVEMENT OF THIS TSTM CLUSTER.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WAA...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN KS /IN VICINITY AND
N-SE OF CNU/.

THIS MORE RECENT SERN KS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT
OF THE WEST CENTRAL MO CLUSTER SUGGESTS A 30-35 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR
FROM 35 ENE CNU TO 25 NE SGF WILL BE PRONE FOR TRAINING TSTMS AS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORM ON THE WRN/SWRN FLANK OF THIS EVOLVING
TSTM CLUSTER.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK SUGGESTING A
LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THE EARLY MORNING...GIVEN PW VALUES EXCEEDING
1.5 INCH.  THE SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED VEER AND WEAKEN BETWEEN 12-15Z
RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WAA AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 12Z.

..PETERS.. 06/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...

LAT...LON   37999460 38039404 37869344 37689307 37429308 37309344
            37459424 37529459 37669488 37769495 37999460

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